This report analyzes the implications of political-military, social, intellectual, and economic change within China for the evolution of Chinese foreign policy over the next 10-15 years. The purpose of such analysis is to discern whether and how the profound changes under way in China could prove adverse to U.S. interests in Asia. The report finds that strong incentives will likely remain for China to adhere to the central tenets of its existing foreign policy during the period examined, marked by overall caution and pragmatism, a recognition of the need for a placid Asian security environment, and a balancing of both cooperation and competition with the West. China will probably become neither significantly more cooperative nor extremely uncooperative and/or belligerent toward the West; nor will it lapse into chaos and confusion as a result of domestic collapse or political fragmentation. Although policy continuity could pose significant challenges to Asia's security environment, the...

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