Global Uncertainty and the Volatility of Agricultural Commodities Prices
Автор:
B.R. Munier, 256 стр., ISBN:
1614990360
The recent global financial crisis exposed the serious limitations of existing economic and financial models. Not only did macro models fail to predict the crisis, they seemed incapable of explaining what was happening to the economy. Policy makers felt abandoned by the conventional tools of the now obsolete Washington consensus and the World Trade Organizations oversimplified faith in free markets. The traditional models for agricultural commodities have so far failed to take into account the uncertain character of the global agricultural economy and its ferocious consequences in food price volatility, the worst in 300 years, yielding hunger riots throughout the world. This book explores the elements which could help to close this fundamental modeling gap. To what extent should traditional models be questioned regarding agricultural commodities? Are prices on these markets foreseeable? Can their evolution be either predicted or convincingly simulated, and if so, by which methods and...
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