This study examines U.S.-Mexico sugar trade with special attention given to the impact of changes in trade and market environments caused by implementation of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) and the introduction of high fructose corn syrup (HFCS). These two factors contributed to shaping sugar markets in the United States and Mexico as well as sugar trade between the two countries. The study includes two sections: (1) a description of the sugar markets from an historic point of view and (2) an empirical study forecasting the market and trade outlook. In section one, characteristics of the sugar industry and transition of the sugar markets brought by the two factors (NAFTA and HFCS) are presented. Adoption of HFCS shaped the U.S. sweetener market in the 1980s and a similar phenomenon appears to be beginning in Mexico. This is explained by not only income growth but also the provisions of NAFTA that facilitate U.S. HFCS to enter the Mexican market and restrict Mexican...

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